Sunday, December 28, 2008
Jummu Kashmir Grears up for Election Results today
SRINAGAR Dec 28: From being one of the world's flashpoints, Jammu & Kashmir appears to be sliding into a healthy morass of democratic politics.
As the state awaits results from the seven-phase elections on Sunday, the political majors - National Conference, People's Democratic Party and Congress - are engaged in hectic behind-the-scenes manoeuvres for a no-holds-barred crack at power.
With no party seeing a clear majority, the scene has shifted to smoke-filled parlours - like in the rest of the country. Old rivalries are being forgotten as new alliances are sought with the three contending parties working overtime to prove right the adage that there are no permanent friends or allies in politics. For all their claim to be different, J&K seems to have succumbed to the seduction of the realpolitik of stitching up a coalition.
Observers predict neither PDP nor NC will get a majority in the 87-member House, though some feel that the high turnout could favour the former. Congress is expected to emerge poorer because of the impact of the Amarnath land transfer controversy on its Jammu voter base, but may finish with enough clout to play the tiebreaker. BJP may bag some seats in the Hindu-dominated Samba, Jammu and Udhampur districts, but will remain on the Jammu margins.
Despite the polarization over the Amarnath land transfer controversy and the violence that ensued, Kashmiris for the first time in decades overwhelmingly defied a separatist boycott call, posting between 50% and 80% turnouts, indicating that they would rather go with the democratic flow and have themselves heard.
Apprehending the unexpected, senior Shia PDP leader Molvi Iftikhar Hussain Ansari on Thursday met Congress leader and Union water resources minister Saif-ud-din Soz in a hotel here and discussed the possibilities for government formation if PDP emerges as a leading player. What could rock Ansari's boat, however, is the ambivalence with which ex-chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad tends to view a Congress-PDP alliance, which only a few months ago had hit rock bottom.
"Why should we form a coalition government? We are emerging as the largest single party on Sunday," Azad told TOI.
While Soz and M L Fotedar favour a coalition with PDP, Azad appears to be veering towards NC, said a Congress politician.
Omar Abdullah, equally upbeat about NC's prospects, said: "Our party will emerge as the single largest and we will form the next government with the support of like-minded parties. Not necessarily the Congress. The Independents, too, will have a role in government formation.''
"We are in touch with a few Independent candidates. Smaller groups will have a role to play. But it would be premature to discuss the posibilities,'' he added.
Interestingly, Congress MP Sachin Pilot - he is also Farooq Abdullah's son-in-law - is busy trying to bring about a thaw in the relations between the Abdullahs and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi that have been sour. Sonia has been miffed with Farooq over his "intemperate" remarks on the Bofors case that went against Rajiv Gandhi. Making things worse, Farooq joined BJP-led NDA at the Centre.
Sachin even tried to arrange a dinner party for the two families to sort out their differences, which couldn't materialise due to Sonia's engagements.
Aware that the going won't be smooth, PDP's Tariq Hamid Karra, who was finance minister in Azad's government, is hopeful of allying with Congress. "Congress is our natural ally,'' he said, claiming the party's high command has given indications about ties with PDP.
PDP leader and ex-chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, when contacted, said: "Wait until Sunday. Let's not make any kind of hypothesis.''
But Tahir Mohiuddin, editor of Chattan, a popular Urdu weekly, said, "The next government seems likely to be headed by NC - maybe with support of Congress, because Congress can't afford to stay out of power given their weakening hold in Jammu, evident in the last phase.''
As the state awaits results from the seven-phase elections on Sunday, the political majors - National Conference, People's Democratic Party and Congress - are engaged in hectic behind-the-scenes manoeuvres for a no-holds-barred crack at power.
With no party seeing a clear majority, the scene has shifted to smoke-filled parlours - like in the rest of the country. Old rivalries are being forgotten as new alliances are sought with the three contending parties working overtime to prove right the adage that there are no permanent friends or allies in politics. For all their claim to be different, J&K seems to have succumbed to the seduction of the realpolitik of stitching up a coalition.
Observers predict neither PDP nor NC will get a majority in the 87-member House, though some feel that the high turnout could favour the former. Congress is expected to emerge poorer because of the impact of the Amarnath land transfer controversy on its Jammu voter base, but may finish with enough clout to play the tiebreaker. BJP may bag some seats in the Hindu-dominated Samba, Jammu and Udhampur districts, but will remain on the Jammu margins.
Despite the polarization over the Amarnath land transfer controversy and the violence that ensued, Kashmiris for the first time in decades overwhelmingly defied a separatist boycott call, posting between 50% and 80% turnouts, indicating that they would rather go with the democratic flow and have themselves heard.
Apprehending the unexpected, senior Shia PDP leader Molvi Iftikhar Hussain Ansari on Thursday met Congress leader and Union water resources minister Saif-ud-din Soz in a hotel here and discussed the possibilities for government formation if PDP emerges as a leading player. What could rock Ansari's boat, however, is the ambivalence with which ex-chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad tends to view a Congress-PDP alliance, which only a few months ago had hit rock bottom.
"Why should we form a coalition government? We are emerging as the largest single party on Sunday," Azad told TOI.
While Soz and M L Fotedar favour a coalition with PDP, Azad appears to be veering towards NC, said a Congress politician.
Omar Abdullah, equally upbeat about NC's prospects, said: "Our party will emerge as the single largest and we will form the next government with the support of like-minded parties. Not necessarily the Congress. The Independents, too, will have a role in government formation.''
"We are in touch with a few Independent candidates. Smaller groups will have a role to play. But it would be premature to discuss the posibilities,'' he added.
Interestingly, Congress MP Sachin Pilot - he is also Farooq Abdullah's son-in-law - is busy trying to bring about a thaw in the relations between the Abdullahs and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi that have been sour. Sonia has been miffed with Farooq over his "intemperate" remarks on the Bofors case that went against Rajiv Gandhi. Making things worse, Farooq joined BJP-led NDA at the Centre.
Sachin even tried to arrange a dinner party for the two families to sort out their differences, which couldn't materialise due to Sonia's engagements.
Aware that the going won't be smooth, PDP's Tariq Hamid Karra, who was finance minister in Azad's government, is hopeful of allying with Congress. "Congress is our natural ally,'' he said, claiming the party's high command has given indications about ties with PDP.
PDP leader and ex-chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, when contacted, said: "Wait until Sunday. Let's not make any kind of hypothesis.''
But Tahir Mohiuddin, editor of Chattan, a popular Urdu weekly, said, "The next government seems likely to be headed by NC - maybe with support of Congress, because Congress can't afford to stay out of power given their weakening hold in Jammu, evident in the last phase.''
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